Kuric lifts Louisville over West Virginia

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Kuric hit the tying three-pointer as part of a late Louisville run, then made a critical steal in the closing seconds to help the 24th-ranked Cardinals notch their sixth straight win with a 77-74 triumph over West Virginia.

Kuric finished with 17 points and Russ Smith added 16 for Louisville (20-5, 8-4 Big East), which hasn't lost since a January 16 setback at Marquette and will try to continue its streak on Monday with a visit from Syracuse.

Kevin Jones scored 22 points and grabbed 11 rebounds for West Virginia (16-10, 6-7), which has lost two straight and five of its last six. The Mountaineers have also dropped three in a row at home.

Louisville trailed 71-64 with just under six minutes left, but scored the next 11 points. Kuric's three-pointer with 2 1/2 minutes remaining tied it for the Cardinals and Truck Bryant turned it over soon after, leading to a Smith layup for a 73-71 Louisville lead.

Chris Smith added two free throws for a four-point edge before Jones converted a three-point play with 50 seconds remaining to pull West Virginia within one.

The Cardinals worked the shot clock down on their next possession and Kuric's three-point try came up short with 14 seconds left. Gary Browne then tried to thread a pass inside, but Kuric stepped in front of the pass and was fouled.

He sank both from the stripe for a three-point advantage with 5.5 seconds to play and Bryant's tying attempt from the left wing failed to even draw iron.

Bryant finished with 13 points in defeat, while Deniz Kilicli chipped in 17 before fouling out late in the contest.

The Cardinals received 13-point efforts from Chris Smith and Wayne Blackshear, while Peyton Siva contributed 10 with five assists. Louisville made 10-of-22 from three-point range, led by Kuric's 4-for-8 performance. Chris Smith and Blackshear each hit three from beyond the arc.

Kuric hit a pair of early three-pointers to help Louisville to an 11-6 lead, but West Virginia came right back and grabbed a 16-14 edge on a triple by Bryant. Chris Smith answered with a shot from long range for the Cardinals, but West Virginia later stormed ahead with a 12-0 run.

Jones had a dunk and a three-pointer during the surge for the Mountaineers before a free throw from Kilicli gave West Virginia a 30-20 edge with eight minutes remaining in the half. The lead reached 13 on a three by Aaron Brown, but Louisville trimmed the margin to five before a layup by Dominique Rutledge sent West Virginia to the break with a 44-37 advantage.

The Mountaineers' lead hovered between eight and 10 points for most of the second half and it was a seven-point bulge with just under six minutes left after a layup by Rutledge.

Game Notes

Jones notched his 18th double-double of the season...Louisville improved to 9-4 all-time against West Virginia, including 3-3 in Morgantown...West Virginia's last five games have all been decided by six points or less.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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