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11/04/2011 - Fort Worth, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Camping World Truck Series race on Friday night at Texas Motor Speedway had a little bit of everything. Kyle Busch lost his cool and knocked title contender Ron Hornaday Jr out of the event in the early going. Kevin Harvick held off points leader Austin Dillon in a green-white checkered finish to win the WinStar World Casino 350k and clinch the owner's championship, in what will be Kevin Harvick Inc's last year of competition in the series.
On lap 14, Hornaday Jr. bumped into Busch while they were battling hard for position and passing the slower truck of Johnny Chapman. Hornaday and Busch then made contact with the wall, forcing the first caution.
Busch chased down Hornaday on the following lap and punted the 53-year-old driver hard into the wall. Hornaday wound up finishing 34th and saw his hopes of winning a series record-extending fifth championship come to an end.
"He knows I'm going for the points [championship], so I don't know why he did it," a frustrated Hornaday said. "This is just stupid. He knew what I was going for, and he knew I was there. He had to lift too. If I would have lifted, I would have hit the back of the slower truck, and it would have created a bigger wreck. He just drove me into the fence and ruined a perfectly good race car."
Busch also hit the wall and severely damaged his truck after taking action against Hornaday. NASCAR officials immediately parked him for the remainder of the race. Busch and his crew chief, Eric Phillips, were also summoned to the NASCAR hauler following the race for a discussion with officials.
"Considering Ron is in the championship, maybe Ron could have played it a little bit smarter," Busch said. "Obviously, if you make it a three-wide situation I can't go up in the dirt. I'm already on the outside lane. There's not that many lanes out there.
"It's a truck race, and it's the first race here this weekend. So if I just lay over and give up everything for Ron Hornaday, that's not Kyle Busch's fashion. I'm out here to win a race just as much as anybody else. When he raced up on my inside, gets loose and takes me up to the fence, I ended up losing my cool."
Busch could be facing additional penalties from NASCAR, including a chance of being parked for Saturday's Nationwide event and Sunday's Sprint Cup Series race. Busch is one of the 12 drivers in the championship Chase field. He is presently 57 points behind leader Carl Edwards.
"Sorry, it was Ron Hornaday, and he's going after a championship, but the fact of the matter is, you can't place all blame on one person," Busch noted. "There's two people that got into it to begin with, and there's two people that ended it."
With one race to go, Hornaday has been eliminated from championship contention. He now trails leader Austin Dillon by 48 points. Hornaday had been on a late-season surge, finishing either first or second in the last four races, and came into this event 15 points behind Dillon.
"I think Kyle definitely showed his immaturity, and why he's one of those guys who just can't stand to lose - just a poor loser," said Harvick, who is Hornaday's team owner. "It's unfortunate for Ron, and it's too bad that a guy over here trying to win races got in the middle of the championship fight. At some point, [Busch] will feel the pain."
Harvick, driving the No.2 Chevrolet, claimed his fourth win of the season and the 13th of his truck career.
"We've had a lot of momentum in the '2' truck with the owner's championship, and with everything that was going on, I just wanted to be in it when we were able to clinch the championship, being that we're getting out of [the series at season's end]," he said.
An incident involving David Starr in the closing laps set up the two-lap overtime finish. Dillon challenged Harvick for the lead just after restart, but Harvick pulled away and crossed the finish line 0.3 seconds ahead of Dillon.
"I spun the tires and didn't get going, but I had my brother [Ty] behind to help me out," Dillon said. "He was doing a good job out there. I was hoping he could push me down the backstretch to clear Harvick, but I got a little loose on the right-front and had to turn back under Harvick. I had a run at him at the end. Our truck was really good."
Dillon now holds a 20-point lead over Johnny Sauter, who finished seventh. If Dillon finishes 16th or better in the November 18 season-finale at Homestead, FL, he will clinch the championship, regardless of any other driver's performance.
Ty Dillon, in just his second start, finished an impressive third.
Nelson Piquet Jr. took the fourth spot, while Matt Crafton completed the top- five.
Texas-native James Buescher came to his home track trailing Dillon by 11 points. Buescher started on the pole and led 56 laps, but he ran out of fuel during the final caution and wound up finishing two laps behind in 19th. He is now 28 points out of the lead.
<< Backes lifts Blues over Canucks
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Backes scored the go-ahead goal early
in the third period, helping the St. Louis Blues beat the Vancouver Canucks,
3-2.
Backes also had an assist for the Blues, who snapped a two-game skid. T.J.
<< Eger leads suspended Desert Dunes Classic
Desert Hot Springs, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kent Eger posted his second
consecutive three-under 69 on Friday to take the lead during the suspended
second round of the Desert Dunes Classic.
Eger finished 36 holes at six-under 13
<< Lecavalier lifts Lightning over Blackhawks in OT
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vincent Lecavalier scored with 53.7 seconds left
in overtime, lifting the Tampa Bay Lightning to a 5-4 win over the Chicago
Blackhawks on Friday.
Lecavalier's game-winner came on an easy one-timer next to
<< Habs beat Sens, run win steak to four
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrei Kostitsyn scored the eventual game-
winning goal in the second period and Carey Price made 33 saves as the
Montreal Canadiens edged the Ottawa Senators, 2-1 at Scotiabank Place.
Erik Cole ne
Eskimos top Roughriders on Schiavone's FG >>
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derek Schiavone's 27-yard field goal in the
final minute of the game gave the Edmonton Eskimos a 23-20 victory over the
Saskatchewan Roughriders in the regular season finale for both teams.
Edmonton ent
Scott needs to fire Stevie yesterday >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adam Scott must fire caddie Steve Williams
as soon as humanly possible.
There can be no excuses, no defense, nothing. Williams has to become
unemployed immediately.
At the caddie awards, an in
Barkley throws 6 TDs as Trojans rout Buffaloes >>
Boulder, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Barkley set a school record with six
touchdown passes and No. 21 USC rebounded from a debilitating loss by blowing
out lowly Colorado, 42-17.
Barkley threw for 318 yards on 25-of-39 passes for
Ueda surges in front at Mizuno Classic >>
Shima-shi, Mie, Japan (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Momoko Ueda birdied her last four
holes Saturday en route to an eight-under 64 and the second-round lead of the
Mizuno Classic.
Ueda, who won this title in 2007 when she wasn't a member of the LPGA To
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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